By Seun Kolade
When a Nigerian newspaper editor friend sent me a message few weeks ago, it was simply to check on me because, as he puts it, I had been very quiet. He was right. So much has happened in the past month and a half that I would have, in normal times, pen responses to.
However, I was grappling with three academic book contracts, and for one of the books, my co-authors and I had already requested an extension to complete the work, and the new deadline was approaching. We were committed to meeting the deadline without the need to request an extension to the extension. A reputational demand we placed on ourselves, you know. Thankfully, our new book, Generative AI in Research, was submitted in time and now in production. You can check the book’s website for updates. The release date is October 2025.
As soon as the book was done, and the other deadlines attended to, I went on a long overdue holiday, from which I just returned. Within that time, the Nigeria social media space, ever awake, has been replete with drama. There was another round of Biodun Fatoyinbo theatre, but the two prominent subjects that come to mind include the 2027 election and the emergence of a new coalition against the current Tinubu-led government, and another round of stories about Peter Obi, his immediate family and supporters. The second is another instalment of the Alaafin-Ooni rivalry-a subject that has curiously attracted the interest and attention of many Nigerians across the country more than, say, the recent significant story of the capture, by Nigerian military authorities, of two key terrorist leaders in the country. I shall return to the subject of Alaafin-Ooni controversy at the next opportunity, hopefully soon.
Today, I want to focus attention on the fundamental question of the Nigerian state, in the wake of the frenzy about the 2027 election. The emergence of ADC, bringing together strange political bedfellows and ideological incompatibles, underlines the totalist desperation that defines the Nigerian political theatre. It is all or nothing. It is also a lot more than a grasp for political power, but also all that comes with it in the Nigerian geopolitical context. And there is quite a lot, because in Nigeria as it is currently structured, the biggest channel to wealth is not industry or innovation but access to political power. There are cases that buck the trend, of course, but they also invariably confirm the trend.
The truth is, most of the politicians gathering to form new coalitions today are not just desperate for political power. They are also fighting for relevance and means of patronage. It is, for them, almost a struggle for life itself. Given that most of these actors are not known for some path-breaking innovation of big industrial establishments, to be shut out of political power is equivalent to taking a fish out of the water.
Deprived, in effect, of their access to state coffers, they are unable to maintain the interest and fleeting loyalty of their followers, who, in turn, are not exercised by any higher ideas of ideological fidelity or transcendent commitment to public good. Stomach “infrastructure” rules, and it not cheap to keep mercenaries happy. You pay up or pack up.
The same logic applies to the government in power, with perhaps an even greater level of intensity. In Nigeria today, politicians and political office holders in government are probably more exercised by the fear of losing access to power than they are by the enjoyment of their current access. They know- or you would assume they do- that their millions of fair-weather friends will dissipate as quickly as the morning cloud, the moment they are out of power. The pomp and pageantry that come with political power, the ostentatious displays, the dazzling allure of public adulation- this is the essence of the Nigerian “big man”.
Without these, the professional Nigerian politician is lost, unable to find meaning and purpose- in spite of any pretensions to the contrary. It is why they would do everything to hold on to it- one way or another. It why-partly at least- many former Nigerian governors find the means to return to the seat of power as senators, or fight hard to retain influence as all-controlling godfathers in the states they previously governed.
At the heart of all this is the peculiar character of the Nigerian presidency. Absent thoroughgoing dictatorships like North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, the Nigerian presidency is arguably the most powerful political office in the world. The evidence is indeed compelling as to make this unarguably true. We have seen how successive Nigerian presidents have practically toyed with the Nigerian state, did whatever they like- them and their family and acolytes after them, with almost absolute impunity, whilst the country tethers on the precipice. The constituent states had become mere appendages, partly because their financial viability is tied to federal allocations, which are in turn dependent on resource appropriation from selected parts of the country.
The ensuing rent-seeker economy does not incentivise innovation or reward industry. It favours loyalty to “Big Daddy” at the centre. And this becomes a vicious cycle in which an all-powerful central government run by “Big Daddy” politicians sustain rent-seeking economy, which in turn cultivate an unproductive workforce, indulge an indolent, long-suffering citizenry, and accelerate the atrophy of society.
However, it is precisely because of the peculiar character of the all-powerful Nigerian presidency that I believe that the current Nigerian president, like his predecessors, is in the prime position to facilitate the restructuring of the Nigerian state. I mean, let’s be honest: it is highly unlikely that he would undertake this greatest public service in the history of Nigeria.
In that cynical unwillingness, he would be very much like his predecessors, but there is still a chance that, for someone motivated by history of some sort, he could perhaps be motivated to midwife the Nigerian Miracle by freeing this unwieldy giant shackled by its own weight- a collossus stumbling under its own contradictions. If President Tinubu does this, he could become the hero of a new Nigeria- regardless of what you make of his past. Will he do it? I very doubt it. Such is the intoxicating toxicity of the Nigerian presidential powers that no one has relinquished it voluntarily- even in the service of greater good. But there, precisely, is the space where legends are made.
The one thing we cannot take are promises or last minute performative interventions, like former president Goodluck Jonathan, who launched a National Conference on the eve of his departure. There are two years to the next presidential election. If President Tinubu is interested in facilitating a restructured Nigeria, he should not make it a promise for his second term. He should get to work now. Nothing less and nothing else will do.
On a final note, while I was away, I read stories about Peter Obi’s son- the desperation with which his detractors sought to make a big political capital of it, and the sheer fury and belligerent ferocity with which his “Obidient” supporters have responded. On the one hand, you would think that his detractors have uncovered incontrovertible evidence to show that Peter Obi is the godfather of Iswap and Book Haram combined! On the other hand, the rage of the “Obedient” – even in interactions with more moderate Obi supporters- makes you wonder, and shudder, at what they could do if invested with the political power- of the Nigerian presidency.
The same wonder applies when you consider the antecedents of many previous political office holders now banding together in a new coalition to seize power. With the rage and fury we have seen, we can almost be certain that we will have a Robespierre styled ‘Committee of Public Safety and the associated “Reign of Terror”, or another enactment of Stalin’s Great Purge, in which more than 700,000 people were executed, and millions more sent to the Gulag labour camps.
If anything, the conduct of the current government, and the activities and antecedents of many opposition politicians, have, in combination, reinforced the truth that only proper restructuring will save the Nigerian state. The intoxicating power of the Nigerian presidency is a big challenge for the best-intentioned politician. For self-seeking and vengeful politicians of the Nigerian hue, the Nigerian presidency is nightmare made in hell- for the people, as for the country.
Seun Kolade is a professor of Entrepreneurship and Digital Transformation at Sheffield Business School, Sheffield Hallam University, United Kingdom.