Dr. Sand Mba-Kalu, a development economist, has urged the establishment of an autonomous watchdog to oversee how funds saved from the removal of fuel subsidies are managed and disbursed.
Mba-Kalu, who is the Executive Director of the Africa International Trade and Commerce Research (AITCR), made this known on Friday in Abuja during an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).
He was responding to President Bola Tinubu’s October 1 Independence Day broadcast in which the president highlighted the fiscal impact of subsidy removal.
“I suggest that the board should include representatives from Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) and the audit office to ensure transparency and accountability in the use of the funds,” he said.
Tinubu had on Oct. 1 said that the removal of the corrupt petroleum subsidy had freed up trillions of Naira for targeted investments in the real economy and social programmes for the most vulnerable, and all tiers of government.
The president also said that oil production rebounded to 1.68 million barrels per day from barely one million in May 2023, an increase which occurred due to improved security, new investments and better stakeholder management in the Niger Delta.
Reacting to this, Mba-Kalu cautioned that the “trillions freed” from subsidy removal could be vulnerable to mismanagement, which could erode public confidence and hinder expected development gains.
“Multiple studies caution that subsidy removal often leads to inflation, poverty, and social unrest unless accompanied by strong transparency and accountability.
“The rationale for subsidy removal is to reallocate resources effectively.
“To maintain public trust, the government should publish an expenditure ledger detailing the savings and link them to clear line items such as healthcare, infrastructure, education, social support, and state funding,” he said.
He proposed that quarterly scorecards should be made public, showing measurable results such as kilometers of roads built, new hospital capacity, households supported, and expanded energy access.
According to him, subsidy removal has already triggered sharp increases in food prices, transportation fares, and general inflation, which continue to strain vulnerable households.
He noted that the costs of essential items such as educational supplies, utilities, and food staples had also risen, worsening inequality, especially for rural and low-income families.
He cited a March 2025 Afrobarometer and NOIPolls survey, which revealed that 93 per cent of Nigerians felt the country was moving in the wrong direction and strongly opposed subsidy removal because of its economic impact.
He further observed that while the oil and industrial sectors recorded improvements, the non-oil sector must also grow robustly to sustain inclusive development.
Mba-Kalu said non-oil GDP expanded by 3.64 per cent in Q2 2025, contributing almost 96 per cent of national output, but warned that the manufacturing sector was struggling, showing weaker growth than the previous year.
He recommended that agriculture, ICT, services, and trade must be scaled up to diversify the economy and create jobs.
To lessen the burden on ordinary Nigerians, he urged the government to expand conditional cash transfers, transport vouchers, and targeted subsidies for essential goods such as fertilisers, power, and internet access, rather than reinstating blanket fuel subsidies.
He added that interventions should give priority to rural dwellers, women, informal workers, and low-income households. He further argued that special relief measures covering food, medicines, and electricity tariffs would be crucial in preventing many families from sliding deeper into poverty.