A new climate outlook from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) indicates that the planet is likely to experience sustained periods of extreme heat over the next five years, with global temperatures expected to remain at or near record highs.
The report, released in collaboration with the UK Met Office, suggests that climate change effects over land and oceans will continue to intensify, driving persistent warming trends across the globe.
According to the assessment, there is an 86 per cent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 2024 as the warmest year on record.
It also projects a 91 per cent chance that global temperatures will temporarily rise above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of those years — a critical threshold under the Paris Agreement.
Scientists note that while such temporary exceedances do not invalidate the long-term goals of the agreement, prolonged warming beyond this level would significantly heighten risks of extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, food insecurity and population displacement.
The report estimates that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
It further suggests a 75 per cent likelihood that the five-year average itself will surpass the 1.5°C mark.
Climate experts involved in the study also highlighted the potential influence of an El Niño event expected toward the end of 2026, which could increase the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures in 2027.
Lead author Leon Hermanson noted that the Arctic region is expected to continue warming at a much faster rate than the global average.
He said temperatures across the Arctic during the coming five winters could rise by about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, significantly outpacing global averages.
The study also forecasts ongoing declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in regions such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, as warming conditions persist.
Scientists explain that shrinking sea ice accelerates global warming by reducing the Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight, while also disrupting ecosystems, weather systems and local livelihoods in polar areas.
In addition, the outlook points to changing rainfall patterns linked to rising global temperatures.
Wetter-than-average conditions are expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier-than-normal conditions may affect the Amazon basin and sections of the subtropics.
Increased rainfall is also projected across higher northern latitudes during winter seasons within the forecast period.
The findings are intended to support governments, climate agencies and policymakers in preparing for near-term climate risks that are increasingly becoming immediate rather than distant projections.