A new report published by The Lancet projects that by 2050, about 30.5 million people will be newly diagnosed with cancer each year, representing a 61 per cent increase compared to current figures. The report also predicts that annual cancer deaths will rise by nearly 75 per cent, reaching around 18.6 million globally. The increase is expected to be driven largely by population growth and ageing populations.
According to the report, which was carried out by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators and funded by the Gates Foundation, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, and St. Baldrick’s Foundation, low-income and middle-income countries are expected to bear the greatest burden of this increase. While global rates for cancer deaths have decreased when adjusted for age, some low- and middle-income countries continue to experience rising rates and numbers.
The study noted that in 2023, breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer worldwide for both sexes combined, while cancers of the trachea, bronchus, and lungs remained the leading cause of cancer deaths. It also revealed that 46 per cent of cancer deaths in men were linked to preventable risk factors such as tobacco use, unhealthy diets, high alcohol consumption, workplace risks, and air pollution. Among women, 36 per cent of leading risk factors were attributed to tobacco use, unsafe sex, unhealthy diets, obesity, and high blood sugar.
Behavioural risk factors contributed significantly to cancer deaths across all country income levels in 2023, with tobacco use accounting for 21 per cent of deaths globally. Tobacco remained the leading risk factor in all country income levels except low-income countries, where unsafe sex was the primary risk factor.
The report highlighted the need for countries to target these risk factors to prevent cancer cases and save lives, while also improving early diagnosis and treatment to support those affected. It revealed that France, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom recorded the highest incidence rates of cancer in 2023, while Greenland, Mongolia, and Uruguay had the highest mortality rates. In Nigeria, the top five cancers recorded in 2023 were breast, prostate, liver, cervical, and colorectal cancers. Between 1990 and 2023, the number of people newly diagnosed with cancer in Nigeria grew from about 112 to 138 per 100,000 people, an increase of nearly 24 per cent, while cancer deaths rose from about 90 to 98 per 100,000 people, an increase of just over 8 per cent.
The study recommended that cancer prevention be integrated into national policies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and stressed the importance of equitable cancer-control efforts to ensure that all patients have access to timely and affordable care. It emphasized that addressing the growing global cancer burden requires comprehensive national and international strategies covering prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
While progress is being made toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals target of reducing premature mortality from cancer and other non-communicable diseases, the report warned that most countries need to accelerate efforts. Policymakers, governments, and international agencies are urged to scale up cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment initiatives to meet the rising challenge.